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Unemployment in the Czech Republic
Klečka, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Kvaček, Jan (referee)
This paper is aimed at analysis of unemployment in the Czech regions. The key thing is the effort to create a simple model which determinates unemployment in regions. To this, three basic factors are used - inflation, outcome and criminality as they represent fiscal, monetary and social policies. Firstly, the effects of these factors are tested separately by OLS to find their mutual correlation. The average effects of dependence between factors and unemployment in regions are also established by using panel regression. Original and static Phillip's curves are used to measure the impact of level of unemployment on the inflation. The expanded model of Phillip's curve and the dynamic model of natural level of unemployment are used to estimate natural levels of unemployment in regions. The difference version of Okun's law is used to estimate the impact of economy outcome on the level of unemployment. Subsequently, the extended model of Okun's law is used to distinguish the effect of economic cycle on this impact. Correlation of level of unemployment with criminality is measured by simple model, where the change of the first variable is determined by the change of the second variable. All this knowledge is used to create the complex model, which explains the change of the level of unemployment in...
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Okun's Law and Social Expenditure
Batíková, Marta ; Hanus, Luboš (advisor) ; Baxa, Jaromír (referee)
This thesis analyses Okun's law and its cross-country differences based on social expenditures. To estimate the law in time, Nadaraya-Watson kernel estimation is employed, which has not been applied to Okun's law in any previous study. Thus, to assess the robustness of the model, the statistical testing of hypotheses is used to evaluate the time-varying coefficients. The analysis is executed on OECD countries between 1995 and 2019, and the results are mainly in line with the previous literature. Periods with higher GDP growth and lower unemployment rates, on average, tend to have higher Okun's coefficients. Moreover, cross-country comparison reports the tendency of countries with, on average lower unemployment spending and higher GDP per capita to exhibit higher Okun's coefficients.
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Econometric analysis of unemployment in Czech republic
Melnyk, Anastasiia ; Formánek, Tomáš (advisor) ; Sokol, Ondřej (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the issue of unemployment in general, and in the practical part concretely - unemployment rate in the Czech Republic and Austria. Firstly, the thesis examines the theory of general concepts for getting acquainted with unemployment in an open economy, then explains different types of unemployment and the factors that cause them. Separately describes Okun's law and introduces the regression equation, which will be verified later on empirical data. Next, it will introduce to us selected econometric methods of unemployment analysis, primarily focusing on the problems of time series, with which it will work in the practical part. Particularly, it will describe general terms in econometrics, techniques of estimation of parameters for regression equation, decomposition of time series and their characteristics, use of dummy variables in econometric modeling, econometric and statistical verification of model. In the practical part empirical analysis and evaluation of the results are going to be performed - firstly, decomposition of time series and proper seasonal adjustment.,then test of time series for unit root and subsequently differentiation for detrending. As a hypothesis, some of the factors described in the theoretical part will be selected:: citizens' level of education, minimum wage, global crisis of 2008, intervention of CNB, and GDP (based on Okun's law). Regression of unemployment rate on individual factors will be run, the model also will be gradually expanded by other variables and will be tested for the unit root and heteroskedasticity. Estimates using the Generalized Least Squares method will be compared to the OLS estimates. Thesis will be summarized by conclusion of the empirical analysis.
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Unemployment in the Czech Republic
Klečka, Michal ; Hlaváček, Michal (advisor) ; Kvaček, Jan (referee)
This paper is aimed at analysis of unemployment in the Czech regions. The key thing is the effort to create a simple model which determinates unemployment in regions. To this, three basic factors are used - inflation, outcome and criminality as they represent fiscal, monetary and social policies. Firstly, the effects of these factors are tested separately by OLS to find their mutual correlation. The average effects of dependence between factors and unemployment in regions are also established by using panel regression. Original and static Phillip's curves are used to measure the impact of level of unemployment on the inflation. The expanded model of Phillip's curve and the dynamic model of natural level of unemployment are used to estimate natural levels of unemployment in regions. The difference version of Okun's law is used to estimate the impact of economy outcome on the level of unemployment. Subsequently, the extended model of Okun's law is used to distinguish the effect of economic cycle on this impact. Correlation of level of unemployment with criminality is measured by simple model, where the change of the first variable is determined by the change of the second variable. All this knowledge is used to create the complex model, which explains the change of the level of unemployment in...
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The analysis of causes of the youth unemployment (15-24 age class) in European Union in years 2000-2015
Šulai, Michal ; Czesaný, Slavoj (advisor) ; Bartůsková, Lucia (referee)
The aim of this thesis was to analyze main causes of youth unemployment in countries of European Union. In order to assess main determinants of this negative phenomenon, an econometric model based on panel data was constructed. Source dataset, containing mainly Eurostat data, covers EU-28 countries in the 2000-2014 period. Results of a regression inclined that youth unemployment is effected mainly by overall economic development. Youth unemployment is more sensitive for economic downturns than unemployment in an adult age class. The model also suggested that cuts in payroll taxes and deregulation in the minimum wage legislation could have positive effect on youth employment. Based on the literature, reforms toward more practical and effective education system with elements of dual apprenticeship, could be also a positive step in tackling youth unemployment. However, an econometric-based proof of this hypothesis was not found.
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Empirical analysis of Okun’s law in Iceland
Zajíček, Zdeněk ; Slaný, Martin (advisor) ; Chytilová, Helena (referee)
This thesis deals with empirical analysis of Okuns law in Iceland. Okuns hypothesis of negative relationship between real GDP and the rate of unemployment is being tested on two models, difference and gap, using OLS estimation. Also there are two filtration methods used (Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King) for gap model estimation. The results of all models showed weak relationship of variables, but proved the hypothesis. In the following part, the same procedure is being used on Finlands data, to get comparison of coefficients. Results for Finland showed weaker bond of variables than in Iceland, but the Okuns hypothesis still holds. Last part is focused on finding the sensitivity of rate of unemployment to changes in added value of each economical sector in Iceland using the production approach model. This model gave inconclusive results due to insufficient data available.
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The Development of Unemployment Rate in Selected Region - Central Bohemia Region
Říhová, Andrea ; Brčák, Josef (advisor) ; Frydrych, Jakub (referee)
This bachelor thesis deals with the unemployment rate develompent in the Central Bohemian Region. First part of the thesis defines terms related to unemployment and labour market and is based on studing professional literature.
Practical part of the thesis describes the develompent of unemployment rate in the Central Bohemian Region since 2005 to 2014 and it also analyzes the reasons of it. All data used in this part are taken from Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs, Ministry of Finance, employment offices and the Czech Statistical Office.
A fractional aim of this writing is to compare the unemplyoment rate develompent between the already named Central Bohemian region and the rest of the Czech Republic. This is performed through the fractional structures of unemployment. Another part of the thesis deals with unemplyement rate development in selected areas of the Central Bohemian Region since 2005 to 2014.
Many figures and tables are used in this thesis for better ilustration There is also shown the forecast of a possible future development of unemployment rate in every section
The conclusion of this bachelor thesis is dedicated to current soulution of unemployment in the Central Bohemian Region and it also suggests other possible solutions to this problem in the Central Bohemian Region and Czech Republic.
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Empirical Analysis of Labor Markets over Business Cycles: An International Comparison
Brůha, Jan ; Polanský, Jiří
The goal of this paper is to document and summarize the main cyclical features of labor market macroeconomic data in advanced countries. We report the second moments (correlations, coherences and volatility) of labor market variables for various data transformations (growth rates and cycles). Then we use dynamic factor models to inquire about the number of orthogonal shocks that drives labor market data dynamics. We also investigate the time-varying nature of these features: we ask whether they are stable over time, especially at times of severe crises such as the Great Recession. Finally, we compare these features across countries to see whether there are groups of countries characterized by similar features, such as labor market institutions. We find that certain features are stable over time and across countries (such as Okun’s Law), while others are not. We also confirm that labor market institutions influence selected characteristics, but to a limited degree only. We find that one or at most two orthogonal shocks seem to drive the cyclical dynamics of labor market variables in most countries. The paper concludes with our interpretation of these findings for structural macroeconomic models.
Fulltext:  PDF
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Global Economy Outlook - December 2014
Česká národní banka ; Sekce měnová a statistiky ; Odbor vnějších ekonomických vztahů
The November issue of Global Economic Outlook presents its regular overview of recent and expected developments in selected territories, focusing on key economic variables: inflation, GDP growth, leading indicators, interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices. Analysis "Applicability of Okun’s law to OECD countries and other economies" examines the validity of Okun's law, which empirically assesses the strength of the relationship between growth in unemployment and GDP. Using a sample of 59 countries, our analysis shows a significant asymmetry in the evolution of Okun's coefficient since the end of the 1990s.
Fulltext: PDF; PDF
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Analysis of correlation between unemployment rate and GDP in Czech Republic and Poland after 1989
Walach, Janusz ; Petrášek, František (advisor) ; Houdek, Petr (referee)
This thesis focuses on corelation between unemployment and gross domestic product in the Czech Republic and Poland during the period 1990 - 1998. It analyses an empirically observed relationship relating change in unemloyment rate to change in GDP -- Okun's law. After presenting aproaches of different economic schools to unemployment, this work analyses and compares changes in unemployment and labour market as well as identifies the main factors of economic growth and unemployment rate. It faces a problem of discrepancy and inaccuracy of statistical data from the transformation period as well as rapidly changing factors that influenced the natural rate of unemployment and potential output. These reasons made it impossible to uniquely determine validity of Okun's law during transformation period in the Czech Republic and Poland.
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